Sunday, June 9, 2013

Thank You!

Life of Finance Blogger can be tough.
People have different time frame for trading and we all expect instant and positive results for all our trading. That is simply not possible and many times Trolls send abusive emails.
However, once in a while, someone send encouraging emails as well.
The following is an email from one of my long term subscriber:

Hello BB.
Thank you so much for a the many good calls you have come up with.
This has been quite a experience for me.

I would like to thank you for the newsletter and the many blog entries
you took the time to author.
I would also like to share a bit of my trading history, and the
reasons for me to sign up for the newsletter. You see I have been
trading for 7-8 years. It all started with the many daily discussions
about media, politics and financial bubbles of the danish housing
market (I live in Denmark), almost needles to say my views was/is
contrasting to the media painted views -  most the discussions back
then was ending the same way, with my friends telling me "if you are
that smart, go make some money". Well, I opened an account and so it

After the beginning of my trading there was big wins and big losses,
my trading style was about macro and stats, I thought, but I was so
wrong. For me it was mostly about emotions. I became emotionally
exhausted and the timing of the swings was my bad. I saw ETF 3X move
up and run away with gains up to 100% ending with losses in the double
digits. What agony.

So I left the "minute chekking" - checking accounts on hourly basis -
emotional stress and returned to where my successes were (looking from
my trading history). It took half a year before I did any trade again
- and quit levered ETF as a whole (up till now). I never thought I
would be subject to this level of stress because I am a very clam guy.
After my pause I got some checks and balances in place which could
counter some of my bad trading habits (for instance if a trade goes
against you the counter trade is not the right one either, it not
about being IN - its about capital preservation).

I started following you on the blog and it was a easy choice signing
up for subscription to the newsletter and that was the first time ever
I paid for trading advise. But I knew I needed some guidance to grow
with. Partly so I would not revert to my old trading patterns of wild
swings (happened before) a sane voice so to speak, and to get my
emotional toolbox in order.

And now I am more confident than I have ever been and hoping to
continue the journey with you on ward and finally this week concludes
some of the best winning 9 months for me.
My deepest thanks for the advise and being the sane voice I needed so much.

With the best regards.

I was both humbled and touched with this email.
Thank you my friend.

Coming back to market, our exit time was very good and so far our new trade has played well. I was not able to scale in the 2nd part because it ran away from us on Friday but I decided not to chase it. I think the trade will come back to us on Monday to a certain extent when I will add the balance position.

I see a long term top forming on Housing and would think that with the coming bounce we should exit housing if we are long housing. Also with the sentiment negative on gold, I see a long term bottom forming but I still think we will have to wait somewhat more before we can go long.

Thank you and wish you all great trading.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Is perception everything? Can customer reviews change perception about a business?

It can be everything. If you Google "old town mexican cafe san diego", you will probably find better reviews than any other place. It is a tourist location hence the perceived value is higher. The food isn't anything great, neither is the service. In fact, you probably won't get good service most of the times. But overall, people seem to say that it's a great place to eat. I don't think any amount of bad reviews will change the opinion of people decide to go there because of most of them seem to think ok and some of them think it's exceptional.

The question I am trying to ask is if reviews are the only way people believe in something. It's easy to answer- NO. Google reviews are only a guidance for people who are searching. Reviews can tell if something is horribly wrong with a business, or if something is truly exceptional about a business. All the other experiences might tell you details which might be biased. There is no real number to define if reviews can change perception about a business. Reviews might bring first time customers, but overall perception about a business differentiates the best and places which are perceived to be the best.

Try searching for desserts and look up the reviews of a places, you will be surprised how good reviews are and how many people write reviews for dessert places.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

First Meaningful Pull Back.

It has been a while since my last post. It is simply a function of lack of time. In the mean time, I have somehow managed to send the Weekly newsletters to the subscribers.
I was hoping for a market TOP around 1st week of May and accordingly we went long VIX (UVXY) and short Emerging markets and other sectors including Finance.
However, there was an over-shot and the markets kept going up till May 22nd. Obviously, there were some doubts amongst the subscribers. I kept stressing that the correct has simply been delayed not cancelled. And we kept hanging on to the long VIX and short everything else trade.
Yesterday and today we closed our positions. We made a tidy little sum on UVXY and peanuts on others. But at least there was no big red anywhere.
Now we are taking a new position for a short term trade.

I think we are in the process of a giant TOP forming which will take us till the end of summer before we see any major correction.
For now, I think the short term correction is over and we will see another bounce soon. How far it will go is a question of time. But if it fails to make a new high, we have problem. Big problem or little problem, I am not sure at this time.

We stayed away from Gold and Silver because I think the cycles did not bottom. Nor for that matter the cycle for Apple and we will see more downside for Apple as well.  We are waiting for more favourable time to go long PM sector.

We play the game by the seat of the pants. And we always correct the course of action as we go along. We cannot be correct 100% of time. For e.g. I am holding grain ETFs for few months now and I am under water, although not by much. But I am holding onto those positions for longer term. And that is where I find most folks have problem. Committing to a position for long term. May be we got brain washed by leveraged option trade, when we start expecting instant results. We get impatient and when a trade initially goes against us, we get scared. The cycle of fear and greed plays on.

Hope you guys are doing great.
Trade safe.