Thank You!

Life of Finance Blogger can be tough.
People have different time frame for trading and we all expect instant and positive results for all our trading. That is simply not possible and many times Trolls send abusive emails.
However, once in a while, someone send encouraging emails as well.
The following is an email from one of my long term subscriber:

Hello BB.
Thank you so much for a the many good calls you have come up with.
This has been quite a experience for me.

I would like to thank you for the newsletter and the many blog entries
you took the time to author.
I would also like to share a bit of my trading history, and the
reasons for me to sign up for the newsletter. You see I have been
trading for 7-8 years. It all started with the many daily discussions
about media, politics and financial bubbles of the danish housing
market (I live in Denmark), almost needles to say my views was/is
contrasting to the media painted views -  most the discussions back
then was ending the same way, with my friends telling me "if you are
that smart, go make some money". Well, I opened an account and so it
began.

After the beginning of my trading there was big wins and big losses,
my trading style was about macro and stats, I thought, but I was so
wrong. For me it was mostly about emotions. I became emotionally
exhausted and the timing of the swings was my bad. I saw ETF 3X move
up and run away with gains up to 100% ending with losses in the double
digits. What agony.

So I left the "minute chekking" - checking accounts on hourly basis -
emotional stress and returned to where my successes were (looking from
my trading history). It took half a year before I did any trade again
- and quit levered ETF as a whole (up till now). I never thought I
would be subject to this level of stress because I am a very clam guy.
After my pause I got some checks and balances in place which could
counter some of my bad trading habits (for instance if a trade goes
against you the counter trade is not the right one either, it not
about being IN - its about capital preservation).

I started following you on the blog and it was a easy choice signing
up for subscription to the newsletter and that was the first time ever
I paid for trading advise. But I knew I needed some guidance to grow
with. Partly so I would not revert to my old trading patterns of wild
swings (happened before) a sane voice so to speak, and to get my
emotional toolbox in order.

And now I am more confident than I have ever been and hoping to
continue the journey with you on ward and finally this week concludes
some of the best winning 9 months for me.
My deepest thanks for the advise and being the sane voice I needed so much.
THANK YOU.

With the best regards.

I was both humbled and touched with this email.
Thank you my friend.

Coming back to market, our exit time was very good and so far our new trade has played well. I was not able to scale in the 2nd part because it ran away from us on Friday but I decided not to chase it. I think the trade will come back to us on Monday to a certain extent when I will add the balance position.

I see a long term top forming on Housing and would think that with the coming bounce we should exit housing if we are long housing. Also with the sentiment negative on gold, I see a long term bottom forming but I still think we will have to wait somewhat more before we can go long.

Thank you and wish you all great trading.

Is perception everything? Can customer reviews change perception about a business?

It can be everything. If you Google "old town mexican cafe san diego", you will probably find better reviews than any other place. It is a tourist location hence the perceived value is higher. The food isn't anything great, neither is the service. In fact, you probably won't get good service most of the times. But overall, people seem to say that it's a great place to eat. I don't think any amount of bad reviews will change the opinion of people decide to go there because of most of them seem to think ok and some of them think it's exceptional.

The question I am trying to ask is if reviews are the only way people believe in something. It's easy to answer- NO. Google reviews are only a guidance for people who are searching. Reviews can tell if something is horribly wrong with a business, or if something is truly exceptional about a business. All the other experiences might tell you details which might be biased. There is no real number to define if reviews can change perception about a business. Reviews might bring first time customers, but overall perception about a business differentiates the best and places which are perceived to be the best.

Try searching for desserts and look up the reviews of a places, you will be surprised how good reviews are and how many people write reviews for dessert places.

First Meaningful Pull Back.

It has been a while since my last post. It is simply a function of lack of time. In the mean time, I have somehow managed to send the Weekly newsletters to the subscribers.
I was hoping for a market TOP around 1st week of May and accordingly we went long VIX (UVXY) and short Emerging markets and other sectors including Finance.
However, there was an over-shot and the markets kept going up till May 22nd. Obviously, there were some doubts amongst the subscribers. I kept stressing that the correct has simply been delayed not cancelled. And we kept hanging on to the long VIX and short everything else trade.
Yesterday and today we closed our positions. We made a tidy little sum on UVXY and peanuts on others. But at least there was no big red anywhere.
Now we are taking a new position for a short term trade.

I think we are in the process of a giant TOP forming which will take us till the end of summer before we see any major correction.
For now, I think the short term correction is over and we will see another bounce soon. How far it will go is a question of time. But if it fails to make a new high, we have problem. Big problem or little problem, I am not sure at this time.

We stayed away from Gold and Silver because I think the cycles did not bottom. Nor for that matter the cycle for Apple and we will see more downside for Apple as well.  We are waiting for more favourable time to go long PM sector.

We play the game by the seat of the pants. And we always correct the course of action as we go along. We cannot be correct 100% of time. For e.g. I am holding grain ETFs for few months now and I am under water, although not by much. But I am holding onto those positions for longer term. And that is where I find most folks have problem. Committing to a position for long term. May be we got brain washed by leveraged option trade, when we start expecting instant results. We get impatient and when a trade initially goes against us, we get scared. The cycle of fear and greed plays on.

Hope you guys are doing great.
Trade safe.

What some of the top companies are doing to retain customers?

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/28/your-money/companies-that-get-customer-service-right.html?_r=1&

Some excerpts from the above article:

1) Philips refunded a customer after a bulb the customer bought stopped working after 5 months! Yes, when you back your sales with "Guarantees", you make sure you live up to the promises made. There is nothing more annoying for us as customers when we find out the companies used the "guarantee tactic" to lure them into a sale. I bet that the customer who got the refund has raved about Philips which got Philips amazing brand publicity and lots of customers.

2) Human Customer service with follow ups:  In the age of automation, I have met venture capitalists who cringe at the mention of human element needed to run a business. We are definitely not there yet, and like it or not, people sometimes like to talk to a business who they paid. It might be pre-sales, support or sometimes just to make sure how much they are going to be charged this month. West Elm in the above article got full points for customer service, talk about customer retention-they won customers for life.

3) Acknowledgement mistakes made and promptly correcting: We are humans, and everybody knows that, so do customers. Customer appreciate honest business, and they will always appreciate when a business accepts mistake made and does what is needed.

In case you are wondering why customer retention is such a big deal, then please refer to few pictures here http://keepcustomer.blogspot.com/2013/04/customer-retention-infographic.html

We Have A Road Map

I have taken permission to quote part of an email exchange with one of our long standing subscriber, who knows the meaning of patience and looking at longer term picture:

Adrian McMahon Stone	4:54 PM (20 hours ago)
to me

You have nerves of steel BB!

I feel like throwing in the bearish towel..with all the other bears.. a sure contrarian sign.

I will commence my ******* next week.

All the best

Adrian

To which I replied:

BB Finance <bbfinanceblog@gmail.com>	9:36 PM (15 hours ago)
to Adrian

But surely you are reading my Newsletters and Emails!
Did I not write about the BOYZ pushing SPX past 1600 about 10 days back and few times thereafter?
Everything is going according to plan.
No need for panic my friend.
Have a great weekend.
BB

Just to demonstrate that we are not flying blind. We are well aware of what is happening around us, risks and rewards and we are positioning accordingly. 

We do not believe in fancy charts although we execute our trades based on TA. And we are looking a much longer time frame. Mostly in months and years not in weeks, leave alone days. We are looking at what will happen in 2018-20 not next week. I know this is not for everyone and we get anxious / worried when a position initially goes against us. But then I have faith on my system and have seen it work better in longer term. That is why I am long grain today when no one loves it. That's why we went out of gold at $1660 over 2  months back and waited patiently before we get long again. Regular readers will remember our call for Apple many months back. 

Of course we have our share of misses but looking back, had I hold on to those positions for longer term, most of them would have turned winners.

On the whole the winners are far more in numbers and longer we wait in a position, better our rate of success.

People send email asking how to subscribe. I have quite a few selected subscribers who have been with me for long time. There was a time when I took sabbatical for a year and wanted to spend time writing  They have been with me since then. But now I am back to my high pressure  12 hours + day job and I really do not have much time for blogging, however much I love it. But I am committed to all my subscribers, that I should be able to reply to every question, every email, that they may have. All I want folks to know that there are alternative methods of investing, we do not have to hit every ball and score on every turn. I used to provide it free here in this blog but then folks do not value free stuff and most are looking for quick gain. So my style may not be suitable for all. Better to provide it to those who are on the same page with me.

I will close by repeating one of the old calls. That "Tectonic plates of the financial world" are shifting. If I would still be writing in 2018 and you would still be reading it, we will exchange notes about that call.

Safe trading , no, safe investing everyone.

Have a great weekend.

Life In The Fast Lane

Or would you like "Hotel California"?

Either way the thrill of going up and up and never to worry about coming down must be real giddy.
Didn't I say not to short yet.
Although all your indicators are screaming over bought most are throwing in the towel and joining the buy express.
Where do you think we are in the following curve?

My take is, we are right at the Euphoria stage.

And that was why I wrote don't short yet about 2 weeks back.

Although we went out of the long positions in Jan. end , we did not short the market. We gave up this 80-90 points on the upside because we want to catch all the ride down and not take any risk. And if any of you are still long, now may be the time to cash in for good.

After many months, we are now ready to take new positions and subscribers have been given the tip and trades for the coming week. 

And no, I am not looking to get rich by selling Newsletter Subscription.

Good luck trading all.

Customer retention Infographic collection.

What do you think about customer retention now? Are you retaining all your customers? I think we talk about this more then acting on it. We know how important it is to make customers loyal, but we rarely show appreciation for their business. The above graphics should propel one to take action and make customer retention strategy part of your marketing plan.