Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Patience Is Not A Virtue, It Is A Necessity.

Well, the C of the A-B-C in SPX did make a higher high today, although marginally higher. Obviously, everyone is now convinced of the trend change and no longer need any QE or punch bowl. It seems equities have now reached escape velocity and ready to fly to far away galaxies. It does not matter that the world around is not feeling so good. GDP estimates by the Govt. is below 2% in USA and non-existent in Europe. But who cares. At least if you take a look at VIX, you would think that there are no worries in the world and the sky is as blue as it can get. For the 3rd day running, I am showing the weekly chart of VIX and now it is at the same level as it was in 2008 before the crash.

Europe is now out of the memory and many expert chart masters are now giving all clear signal. We cannot even imagine that there can be a massive and sudden correction. Last August SPX dropped 80 points in one day. Because when we are coming down, gravity makes it that much faster. I do not think now is the time to be cute or smart. Even though the cycle top has been reached and my model is calling for an immediate correction, I am willing to wait little more, because the higher it goes, the harder it falls. And it is going up on hot air.
Gold is not responding to the enthusiasm of equities. So let us see how far the shenanigan carries the market. Let me close the post by sharing a chart from Ed Matts.
Either way the end is not very far. I personally prefer the Bearish and Bearish count which fits with my calculations. So let us have some more patience and see how it all unfolds.

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