Friday, January 25, 2013

SPX Closed Above 1500. Did we Erase 2008?

There you have it.

Depending on whether you walk on hoof or on claws we are either on the verge of a giant collapse ( just round the corner for last 5 years?) or about to see another bull era when stocks will go up and up with the rainbows
Personally, I think it would be foolish to marry either of the positions.

All I know and believe that there are real value stocks out there which are beyond my reach today and I would love to buy them at 50%-60% discount and sit on it for ever. I would like to buy KO for less than $10, XOM for $20 and so on. Unless we get a massive sell off, how in our life time we will get that opportunity? And no I would not touch any tech. company for long term investment.

So yes, I would love a huge correction but I do not think that would be the end of the world.

For last may posts I have written that we are on buy signal and as I have shown yesterday, we have been long from beginning of January, only to harvest now. And we are not going to short the market yet, however over bought the indices / indicators are. The corrections will come, nothing lasts for ever. And I am very hopeful that God willing, we will be on the right side of the market even then. No need for any dramatics, no need for any fancy charts or Analogues, no need for splitting hair with macro economic s**t. No need to cry foul that Ben has distorted the market. Because those are beyond our control and don't help us in anyway to make money. Talking of Ben, I don't know how his gamble will play out in the long run, but I would like to share the following chart with you.

At least he did succeed in bringing down the unemployment with his QEs. What will be the unintended consequences, we don't know. So let us just concentrate as to how we can beat the market and make some money, if we may please.

Right now the best entertainment is being provided by Ichan vs. Ackman

It has become personal with insults flowing all around.

Back to markets, SPX closed green 8 days in a row. I think even the 9th day will be green. I have been writing not to short or front run and hopefully you have listened to my unsolicited advice. Overbought is not the reason to short the market and it is not that overbought yet.

I wish ZH and other similar bloggers who are unable to come out of the shock of 2008, would shut up and instead of crying of all possible conspiracy theories, would tell their readers how to beat the system and make real money. But I also know that that is not going to happen and in the next 20% correction they will claim vindication. Alas!

Anyway, lets enjoy the ride while it lasts. Right now, the most favoured position is "Cash". And yes, cash is a position. I think the upside is limited but the indices may churn here for a while.

That's all for this weekend. Have fun folks and remember that Feb. Subscription is open now.